Hey guys,
I have compiled a 3 part long video that not only talks about the SPY to its full extent but also about 8 different charts and how we’re suppose to read into this type of market. In this video I concentrate on the SPY. For the SPY I look at a potential move lower in early trading only to reverse and end up a little higher. I do believe that the H&S will eventually break but this might take another 4-5 days. I look at potential targets for the SPY as we move lower and where I believe shorting would be most desirable.
Duration : 0:9:43
First of all I want to go ahead and admit that I was wrong when I said that the market would go up early in the morning and then reverse in late trading to fall about 1-1.5%. That was my intuition but it obviously didn’t happen. The market continued to stay at very strong resistance but failed to break it. It looks like my down day might get delayed by a couple of hours and take affect either tomorrow or the day after. Tomorrow is an important day as it is also the last day of the month. At this point i would rather be more bearish than bullish as we have the H&S formation still in play and a lot of resistance from over head, and today’s volume was incredibly low (as low as fridays or even lower). I look at different charts to show how the bearish side looks more promising, but I stay neutral on some action. I view SPY, XLF, GS, AAPL, AMZN, VIX.
Today we looked at the markets and have officially declared a BULL MARKET, as we have broken some key resistance lines on the SPY and tested them on the QQQQs (a confirmed breakout for the Qs) and the VIX finally broke down under the support line that has been holding it ever since this market fell in october. We also look at GS as it gave us the que to be long the market when it broke out from it’s bull flag channel and rallied up all the way to it’s longer term ascending channel. We look at SRS finally forming a head and shoulders which can take it to insane lows, and XLF breaking out of it’s inverse head and shoulders. We look at Wells Fargo as it finally showed some strength and is sitting at resistance of an inverse head and shoulders which should take it higher. Monday we may see a pull back as a lot of these stocks are overbought and are sitting on some strong resistance levels and need to pull back a little. The only reason we remain a little skeptical of this breakout is because the Dow Jones has not broken out of it’s channel yet, and lately the technicals worked best on the Dow, but the Qs led the market higher and so did the XLF today, and that’s an encouraging sign. We also looked at AMR as it rallied above a triangle formation and tested the resistance as support. Looking good there!
Today we looked at a bunch of stocks that the hedge fund has taken short and some plays heading into the next few days as I will be gone. 
Today we look at the sell off that broke the S&P channel, and how we played it short from both the XLF and BEN puts side, and the SPY puts side that were put on later that day. I added some GLD september puts in anticipation for a further move to the downside. Because not only the channel but a major support line was breached the next move could be another dump of stocks, there is however a potential for another small rise in stocks to form a more complete H&S formation on the 60 minute charts. It seems like there is a relatively clear path towards the 961 level on the S&P which is the neckline of the major inverse H&S that everyone has seen in the past. I also look at Gold (GLD), XLF, and BEN.
Hey guys,
VISIT: WWW.STOCKTOCK.COM for intraday commentary Today we looked at the last week’s action and how shorting the stock market and buying cheap calls for protection is probably going to pan out very well. We also own JPM puts and SPY puts. We look at the longer term ramifications and how the charts are showing a lot of bearish patterns which can eventually take us to the 825-840 buffer zone and maybe even new lows down the road. While a lot of people think that this market is going to either move up or crash hard, we believe that the pace of the downtrend will begin very moderately but will speed up once the wedge support line is broken. We also look at the SPY, XLF, AIG and GLD.
Today we looked at many charts all around and have tried to make sense of the market action. While we got the strong pull back we expected early on in the day, the market did reverse and move higher making the daily S&P candle not so bearish. We still want a confirmation lower and a break of a trend line before we can get more bearish but the setup in other stocks excluding energy is to the downside. With the XLF showing huge down volume in the last 20 minutes it seems like we could see an H&S forming. Other tech look weak including BIDU, AAPL and AMZN (less weak). Financials including GS, and JPM sold off away from their highs and could be showing signs of a reversal or at least a prolonged consolidation. BAC is a very weak stock after it missed it’s earnings, with that in mind it might be worth shorting BAC and Citigroup ( C ) and going long the XLF as a hedge. I also expect WYNN to potentially hit lower lows.. but keep a stop at a descending resistance trendline, I have already gotten stopped out and i’m out of this position.
Today we look at some fibonacci targets for the markets. SPY has a target of between 109.10 and 109.70 whereas gold has already hit it’s target at around 104. I believe that in the very very near term, we will see GLD under perform SPY due to ti’s overbought status. We went ahead and placed a short gold and long SPY trade today. Short GLD at $104.40, and a Long SPY at $107.40. Our stop is a net credit of 0.25 cents for now, and will widen. We also look at JPM as we have to see financials get stronger in order for the market to push on ahead. Rememeber that we are in options expiration so today could be a crazy day, but if we break the SPY 50 SMA daily to the down side, and breakdown the wedge be VERY careful, this market is very susceptible to a crash.
Here is what I think might be happening in the near future!